Latest Trends in the Nut Market｜Macadamia Nut Prices Stabilize Amid Changes, Global Trade and Health Consumption Boom
Over the past week, the global nut industry has seen notable developments in both market activity and policy, with particular attention given to shifts in the supply and demand of macadamia nuts
Over the past week, the global nut industry has seen notable developments in both market activity and policy, with particular attention given to shifts in the supply and demand of macadamia nuts. Below are the major highlights:
1. Imminent Global Macadamia Nut Shortage: Stable Prices but Rising Supply Pressure
According to reports from German media Mundus-agri and industry leader Ofi, the macadamia nut market has seen stabilized prices after a period of continuous growth. However, major southern hemisphere producing regions, including South Africa and Australia, are facing lower-than-expected yields. South Africa’s production this season fell more than 12% compared to early forecasts due to unusual weather; Australia, though up 5% from last year, still failed to reach initial projections. New harvests will take time, and current inventories are depleted, which may lead to a global supply squeeze between December and February — possibly driving another round of macadamia price increases.
In Kenya, production has increased compared to last year, but exports remain affected by policy and climate factors. Following China’s temporary lifting of its ban on Kenyan in-shell macadamias, both export volume and prices have risen. However, nut kernel exports have actually declined. The export ban may be extended for another six months, and its impact on market expectations will be significant.
2. New Developments in China-US Nut Trade: Extension of US Nut Tariff Exemptions and Higher Tariffs for Some Products
Recently, agricultural trade policies between China and the US have been revised again, drawing significant attention in the nut sector. China continues to impose a 10% special tariff on some US nuts (pecans, almonds, walnuts, pistachios, macadamias, hazelnuts, etc). The application deadline for tariff exemptions on US-imported nuts has been extended from September 2025 to October 30, with approved applications now expiring December 13. Notably, new applications submitted after October 30 will face higher tariffs (55–75%), and prevailing import tariffs for major nut categories range from 25–60%. These policy changes are expected to directly impact future import costs and retail prices for nuts, especially macadamias and walnuts.
3. Regional Cooperation Expands Nut Trade, With Southeast Asian Market Performance Standing Out
According to data from Chinese customs and relevant agencies, China-ASEAN trade volume in the first ten months of 2025 rose by 8.2% year-on-year, with imports of many foods and agricultural products up over 40%. The single-category nut imports at the Dongxing port in Guangxi province exceeded 1.1 billion RMB, showing that ASEAN products — especially nuts — are gaining popularity in the Chinese market. Tariff reductions and improved trade facilitation have made China-ASEAN nut trade more dynamic, creating more opportunities for the regional nut industry chain, and further increasing the market share of premium nuts like macadamias.
4. Health Consumption Boom Boosts Nut Category Value
Current health trends have driven nuts, valued for their natural nutrition and numerous health benefits (such as lowering blood lipid levels, aiding blood sugar control, supporting cardiovascular health, and providing anti-inflammatory and anti-cancer properties), to surge in popularity. Premium nuts like walnuts and macadamias are increasingly favored by end consumers, and marketing efforts plus nutrition education continue to grow, helping optimize the market structure for nuts.
Recently, the macadamia and nut industry worldwide has faced a mix of supply-side challenges, trade barrier adjustments, and regional market opportunities. Enterprises are advised to closely monitor policy changes and production dynamics, keep up with downstream demand shifts, and plan their procurement and market development strategies in advance. Over the coming months, supply tightness, rising tariffs, and a booming health trend will remain center-stage in the industry.