Latest Nut Market Trends ②
Over the past week, the global nut market—especially macadamias—has demonstrated a new trend: "rising production without falling prices." This is occurring against a backdrop of ongoing supply growth, trade pattern shifts, and surging health-conscious consumption. The following trends deserve close industry attention.
1. Southern Hemisphere Crop Reductions and Extreme Weather Push Global Supply into "Structural Tightness"
South Africa, the world's largest macadamia exporter, projects a 4% decline in 2025 output compared to the previous season, primarily due to adverse weather reducing yields and fruit size, though planted acreage continues to expand. South African industry organizations and analysts note that while short-term production is down, medium- to long-term export capacity will continue rising as new orchards mature.
Industry sources also warn that amid expectations of increased U.S. tariffs and growing market uncertainty, South African exporters are deepening their strategic focus on China and other Asian markets to diversify risk. This means more diverse macadamia varieties and grades will flow into China, accompanied by more frequent price negotiations.
2. Global Production Continues to Grow, with China Remaining the "Demand Hub"
According to calculations by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) and other institutions, global in-shell macadamia production in 2025 is expected to grow by approximately 6%, with kernel output increasing around 9%. Production expansion is concentrated in Southern Africa, Australia, and emerging Asian regions.
China is both a new planting growth hub—with Yunnan and other regions achieving another bumper harvest this year, nearing or exceeding 70,000 tons—and the world's most important consumer and import market, leading in both in-shell and kernel consumption. This dual role provides crucial price support globally. Under the "domestic production growth + stable imports" framework, China's market influence is strengthening.
3. Global Market Scale Accelerates Expansion, Nuts Sector Continues to "Outperform"
Recent market research reports indicate that the global macadamia-related industry has maintained double-digit growth in recent years, projected to rise from approximately $1.38 billion in 2024 to about $1.52 billion in 2025, representing an annual compound growth rate exceeding 10%.
From a broader perspective, the overall global nut market was valued at approximately $61 billion in 2024, expected to grow from $64.3 billion in 2025 to $91.2 billion by 2032, with an annual compound growth rate of about 5%. Premium nuts including macadamias, mixed nut products, and healthy snacks are the core drivers of this growth. Plant-based diets, functional snacking, and "good fats" concepts are continuously elevating nuts' prominence on retail shelves and e-commerce platforms.
4. Health Consumption and Low-GI Concepts "Add More Fuel" to Macadamia Demand
Multiple health and nutrition platforms recently emphasized that low-GI, quality fats, plant protein, and natural dietary fiber are key attributes for the new generation of snack consumers. Platforms and research institutions note that transaction volumes for low-GI baked goods, roasted nuts, and grain beverages have grown several-fold, with nuts evolving from "mouth pleasure" to "nutritional management tools."
Macadamia nuts, with their high monounsaturated fat content, low sugar levels, and excellent taste, are increasingly featured in weight management diets, blood sugar control plans, and Mediterranean-style eating recommendations. Global macadamia organizations and national industry associations continue amplifying these health messages through nutrition education, recipe development, and social media marketing.
5. Trade and Pricing: Seeking "New Balance" Amid Uncertainty
Against a backdrop of intertwined tariff policies, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical factors, some exporting nations are growing cautious about the U.S. market and increasing their focus on China, ASEAN, and Middle Eastern markets. For Chinese importers, this presents opportunities to optimize costs through diversified sourcing, while also requiring navigation of international price volatility, logistics costs, and policy adjustments.
From a pricing perspective, despite rising global production, macadamias remain in a "high-level volatility with regional differentiation" phase, supported by weather impacts, tariff expectations, inventory structure changes, and strong terminal health demand. Some major producing regions maintain firm pricing, with future trends largely dependent on stocking rhythms and sales performance in core markets like China.