Weekly Global Nut Brief & Tariff Watch
Weekly Global Nut Brief & Tariff Watch, published by China Nuts.
Over the past week, the global nut market—especially macadamias—has been operating under broadly ample supply, while tensions have shifted to three key questions:
Which origins are seeing their price structures quietly reshuffled?
Which countries’ tariffs and policies are redirecting trade flows?
How will major consuming markets such as China and India be re‑positioned in this new landscape?
This briefing unpacks the week’s developments from three angles: macadamia dynamics, the broader tree‑nut picture, and tariff and policy signals.
I. Macadamias: South African Price Split and a Potential Tariff Tailwind for China
1. South Africa: Whole kernels up, halves and pieces down
As the world’s largest macadamia origin, South Africa is seeing a clear price divergence in 2026:
Whole kernels are becoming more expensive: industry sources report that average dollar prices for whole kernels are up by roughly 4% year‑on‑year, reflecting resilient demand for top‑quality material.
Halves and pieces are under pressure: abundant supply and carry‑over stocks have pushed prices for halves and pieces down by close to 10%, squeezing margins in volume‑driven, lower‑grade segments.
Behind this split is a consumer‑side “premium upgrade”:
high‑end markets remain willing to pay for perfect visual appearance, while mid‑ to low‑end segments are competing head‑to‑head with other nuts and even seeds and snack mixes.
2. Tariff outlook: 12% on China may be removed, 30% on India still high
Even more critical is the tariff narrative emerging from South African industry circles:
The 12% import duty on South African macadamias into China is widely expected to be removed, which would be a major potential boost for 2026 exports into the Chinese market.
The tariff on macadamias going into India remains around 30%, with little prospect of meaningful cuts in the short term, limiting South Africa’s growth potential there and leaving more room for origins such as Australia that enjoy lower duties.
For Chinese companies, this implies:
If the policy change materialises, China’s price attractiveness will strengthen, likely pulling in more premium South African whole kernels.
It is important to plan ahead on product mix (whole vs. pieces), brand positioning and channel strategy, rather than scrambling for volume once policy headlines hit.
II. Tree Nuts Overall: USDA’s “Cautious Optimism” and Added Shipping Risk via the Middle East
1. USDA 2026 outlook: “Hopeful, but far from easy”
In its latest Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook, USDA sets out its view for U.S. tree nuts in 2026:
Almonds: bearing area is stabilising and yields are improving, so production is expected to rise, with exports still the key channel to absorb extra volume.
Walnuts: weather and regional cutbacks point to a modest decline in overall output, which could offer some support to prices.
Pistachios: after an “off‑year”, production is likely to rebound, pushing total supply back to high levels; if exports underperform, this may exert downward pressure on prices.
The overarching message:
Supply remains large, costs are elevated, and margins are being squeezed.
Profit has to be “carved out” through cost control, precision management and market diversification.
2. Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Shipping risk hits tree‑nut exports
Reporting from Agri‑Pulse notes that tensions in the Middle East and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are already having tangible effects on tree‑nut exports:
Shipments from the U.S. and other origins to Middle Eastern and neighbouring markets are being rerouted or forced to seek alternative destinations.
Longer routes and higher freight costs are pushing up trade expenses and may accelerate the diversion of some volumes into Asian and European ports instead.
For Chinese importers and traders, this means:
Certain regions may see temporary tightness and price spreads.
At the same time, this is an opportunity to “read the logistics, track the flows, and arbitrage structure”: whoever spots early where displaced product is being forced to go will have an edge on both price and supply security.
III. Tariff Watch: The INC Timeline and Nut Duties Under U.S.–China Tensions
1. INC “Tariffs Timeline”: Nuts heavily represented in new duty rounds
The International Nut & Dried Fruit Council (INC) has updated its Tariffs Timeline, summarising recent trade measures affecting nuts and dried fruits:
Several patterns stand out:
The United States has repeatedly imposed additional duties on a broad set of economies, with lists that explicitly include almonds, Brazil nuts, cashews, hazelnuts, macadamias, pecans, pine nuts, peanuts, pistachios and walnuts, with some nut categories facing rates of around 30%.
China, under its 2026 tariff adjustment plan, removed the previously reduced MFN rate for dried cranberries and restored the higher standard rate, moving from 15% back to 25%—a signal that even “snack‑type” imports are not exempt from tighter trade policy.
The Trump administration in early 2026 floated the idea of a 15% global baseline tariff, and launched investigations into “structural excess capacity” and “forced labor” that could open the door to further targeted duties on dozens of trading partners.
While these measures are not exclusively aimed at nuts, the category is “almost the whole basket” inside the duty lists, so any new move has the potential to reshape competitive positions.
2. U.S.–China nut duties: a 25%–60% wall still stands
Tridge and similar services that have tracked China’s retaliatory duties on U.S. nuts remain a useful reference point:
The extra 10% retaliatory tariff has gone through cycles of exclusion, extension and adjustment, adding volatility.
Many U.S. nut products entering China still face combined duty levels in the 25%–60% range, with raw hazelnuts and walnuts among those subject to the highest rates.
This structure means:
U.S. origin nuts remain at a price disadvantage in China, pushing exporters to find alternative markets or to use processing and repackaging strategies to mitigate some of the impact.
It simultaneously creates structural opportunity windows for suppliers such as Australia, South Africa and Chile.
IV. Action Points for Chinese Companies: Four Keywords
Bringing this week’s developments together, the takeaways for Chinese macadamia and nut businesses can be summarised in four key words:
1. Structure – product design under South Africa’s new price bands
Leverage the rising price of whole kernels and weaker prices for pieces out of South Africa:
For premium lines: prioritise South African whole kernels and build a strong quality and origin story.
For mass lines: blend macadamia pieces with other nuts and seeds to control costs and enhance value for money.
Run scenarios now for post‑tariff‑cut landed costs and target price bands for South African product in China, to avoid last‑minute, reactive price changes.
2. Timing – reading seasonal policies and shipping windows
Track seasonal harvest and export restrictions in countries like Kenya, and plan ordering and arrivals to avoid all cargo hitting the port just as bans lift, which can strain logistics and storage.
For Australia, South Africa and others, combine USDA, AMS and trade‑press data on crop size and stocks to identify more favourable purchase windows.
3. Destination – using tariff and logistics data to re‑map markets
Treat the INC Tariffs Timeline as a “global nut tariff radar”, and regularly compare it against your current and potential destination mix: which markets are getting more expensive, which cheaper, and where is risk rising.
In light of Middle East shipping disruptions, watch where cargo originally destined for the region is being diverted; these diverted flows often translate into good negotiation opportunities on price and terms.
4. Data – shifting from gut feeling to numbers
Consolidate USDA outlooks, South African and Australian industry announcements, and the INC tariff updates into an internal “nut data weekly”, and pair it with your own sales and inventory figures for monthly decision‑making.
For macadamias specifically, pay close attention to emerging retail‑side data projects (such as Australian initiatives in the U.S., Germany and China): these will shape your next three years of product formats and price ladders, not just the price of the next shipment.
In a world where supply is no longer the main constraint, the winners will be those who can read structure, time, destination and data—and turn a seemingly comfortable surplus into sustainable, differentiated profit.