Weekly Global Nut Brief: Macadamias Look Positive, U.S. Faces “No Easy Profits”, Brazil Nuts Stand Out on Price
Weekly Global Nut Brief: Macadamias Look Positive, U.S. Faces “No Easy Profits”, Brazil Nuts Stand Out on Price, published by China Nuts.
Introduction: Supply Is Comfortable, the Challenge Is Profit and Direction
Over the past week, the key words in the global nut market – especially for macadamias – are still ample supply, tight margins, and shifting structure.
In this environment, those who can read production trends, price structures and end‑market demand earlier and more clearly will be the ones who manage to extract profit in a flat‑price world.
I. Macadamias: Positive Outlook for 2026, South African Margins Squeezed by Tariffs and FX
1. Global crop: production recovery, prices “firm to slightly strong”
A recent market comment from Mundus Agri notes that macadamia prices have held relatively firm over the past month.
On one hand, carry‑in stocks from last season are limited and processors are selling cautiously.
On the other hand, March–April is the peak period for offers and contracting, so quoting and trading activity from major origins is brisk.
In its latest report, ofi characterises the 2026 outlook as generally positive across key origins – Australia, South Africa, Kenya and others are all expected to produce more than last year – although harvest‑time weather remains the decisive factor.
2. Australia: the 59,080‑ton forecast still in focus, “cautious optimism” as the mantra
The 2026 crop forecast published earlier by the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS) is still being widely cited this week in trade news and videos.
Forecast production: 59,080 tons in‑shell at 3.5% moisture, equivalent to roughly 63,350 tons at 10% moisture.
Compared with the 43,800 tons in 2025, this is a clear recovery bounce, driven mainly by better weather and large areas of young orchards (planted 2019–2022) reaching maturity.
AMS describes the outlook as “cautious optimism”, not a “super‑crop” year, and plans a mid‑season update in May–June and a final figure in December.
For Chinese buyers and processors, this implies that Australian supply will be relatively comfortable this year, but it does not automatically mean prices will collapse. It is a better moment to think about medium‑ to long‑term sourcing and product‑line planning than pure spot price gambling.
3. South Africa: slightly lower volume, margins hit by U.S. tariffs and a stronger rand
In contrast, a FreshPlaza story from early April offers a more challenging view from South Africa.
Macadamias South Africa puts the 2026 crop at about 81,660 tons of dry in‑shell, roughly 6.38% below 2024, and industry players generally do not expect this year to break the 90,000‑ton mark.
The sector had hoped for continued price recovery after the pandemic slump, but the latest round of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration cooled demand from the U.S. and left some carry‑over in certain styles (e.g. style 4).
At the same time, a stronger rand is eroding margins when converted into U.S. dollars, putting additional pressure on farm‑gate profitability.
From a Chinese market perspective:
With U.S. sales under pressure and some inventory on hand, South Africa will inevitably lean more heavily on China and other Asian markets.
If China’s tariff environment for macadamias improves further, South African premium whole kernels are likely to become even more attractive to Chinese brands.
II. Tree Nuts: U.S. Outlook Is “Hopeful, but Far from Easy”
1. USDA: almonds, walnuts and pistachios each face their own challenges
USDA’s Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook released at the end of March – still being actively cited by trade media this week – outlines the core view for U.S. tree nuts in 2026.
Almonds
Bearing area in California is stabilising and yields are expected to improve, so total output is forecast to rise.
Exports remain essential to clear the crop, but face intense competition from Spain, Australia and other origins.
Walnuts
Unfavourable weather and some orchard removals point to a modest decline in output.
After years of low prices and tree‑pulling, there is some room for price support.
Pistachios
Following an “off‑year”, 2026 is viewed as a recovery year, with production likely returning to high levels.
If export growth fails to keep pace, elevated supply could weigh on prices.
The overall tone is straightforward:
Supply is not especially tight, costs remain high, and margins are under pressure.
Profit has to be carved out via tighter cost control, inventory discipline and market diversification.
2. From “plant more” to “calculate more”
The U.S. tree‑nut conversation clearly shows a shift:
The old mentality was, “plant a bit more; it will probably sell somewhere.”
The emerging mentality is, “do the math on costs, logistics, tariffs and market access first – then decide what to plant and where to sell.”
For Chinese importers and brand owners, this “cautious optimism” from the U.S. is also a signal: we may not be at an absolute price floor yet, but we are unlikely to see unrestrained production growth, so the game ahead is more about timing and structure than about explosive volume.
III. Brazil Nuts: Export Value Surges, Profits Concentrated in the Trade Chain
Although not a macadamia, one piece of news on Brazil nuts this week is worth every nut trader’s attention.
FreshPlaza reports that in just the first two months of 2026, Brazil nut exports from the state of Acre reached USD 6.5 million – already higher than the full‑year total for 2023 and more than half of 2025’s value.
Export prices for in‑shell product surged from about USD 0.77/kg in 2023 to USD 2.91/kg in 2026.
Kernel exports reached around USD 14.30/kg.
In comparison, forest collectors received only about USD 0.90/kg in the 2025/26 season, meaning export prices are still more than three times what producers are paid at origin.
This illustrates very clearly that in many origins:
The real value is not at the raw‑material stage, but in processing, sorting, certification, branding and distribution.
For macadamias and the wider nut sector, it is a reminder that relying solely on selling raw product makes it very hard to significantly improve grower income or industry profitability.
IV. Practical Takeaways for Chinese Companies
Drawing on this week’s information, here are a few actionable angles for Chinese macadamia and nut businesses:
Focus on structure, not just total volume
For macadamias, watch the spread between whole kernels and pieces, and how different styles are moving.
For tree nuts, watch which species are expanding and which are contracting – almonds vs. walnuts vs. pistachios.
Focus on timing, not just price
Use AMS, USDA and other public reports to anticipate crop peaks and more favourable buying windows, rather than chasing prices during periods of intense quoting and panic buying.
Focus on destination, not just origin
Any origin constrained by U.S. tariffs will tend to shift more volume towards China and Asia.
The Brazil nut case also suggests rethinking China’s role not only as a destination, but as a processing and value‑adding hub, instead of just a pass‑through market.
Focus on data, not just sentiment
USDA outlooks, Australian and South African industry updates, and trade‑press coverage together already provide most of the “open‑source intelligence” you need.
Turning this into an internal “nut data weekly” for your team will deliver more reliable decisions than gut feeling alone.