This Week in Macadamias: Demand “Not Quite There Yet”, South Africa Reshapes Its Mix, Kenya Cleans Up Its Channels
This Week in Macadamias: Demand “Not Quite There Yet”, South Africa Reshapes Its Mix, Kenya Cleans Up Its Channels, published by China Nuts.
I. Demand and Pricing: New Season Underway, but “Could Be Better”
Over the past week, the global macadamia industry has fully shifted into the 2026 new‑crop rhythm. Some origins have already begun shipping, others are holding back slightly, but a common feeling is this: supply is not the problem; the question is whether orders are as strong as hoped.
A recent analysis from Mundus Agri notes that new‑season macadamia shipments from some origins began in April, while South Africa and Guatemala are expected to start moving 2026 crop volumes a bit later, in May–June.
Exporters sum up the mood as:
Supply‑side timing is fine, offers and deals are happening,
but from a demand perspective, things “could be better” – not bad, but not exactly on fire either.
In practice this means:
In Australia, several 2026 price videos that circulated earlier are still being shared in the trade. Most major processors are offering slightly lower farm‑gate prices than in 2025, signalling a strategy of stabilising grower and customer relationships rather than betting on a big bull market.
II. South Africa & Kenya: One Reshapes Product Mix, the Other Reshapes Channels
1. South Africa: Whole up, pieces down – currencies and tariffs decide who makes money
In South Africa, this week continued the story of strong whole kernels and weaker pieces. Industry data and coverage in Farmers Weekly show:
At the same time, a stronger rand is quietly “stealing” part of these gains:
So while USD prices look higher on paper, once converted back into local currency, the real increase in grower income is much smaller – and for some products, growers may see higher dollar prices but flat rand returns.
On top of this, U.S. tariffs and trade friction still constrain part of South Africa’s access to the American market, adding to the margin squeeze. At the same time, new or improved zero‑duty access into China and the U.S. is frequently highlighted in Global Macadamias’ market updates and social posts as a critical medium‑term opportunity.
For Chinese companies, the implications are clear:
2. Kenya: Nationwide cleanup of unlicensed trade to underpin quality and pricing
Kenya, by contrast, is focused on cleaning up its channels.
Reports from Mundus Agri and local media such as Eastleigh Voice show that the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) has launched a nationwide crackdown on unlicensed macadamia buyers and processors:
In the short term, this will bring:
In the medium to long term, however, this is good news for serious players:
Kenya is likely to move from being seen as a pure “price‑play origin” to a more controlled, investable origin, suitable for brands, sustainability programs and differentiated origin storytelling.
For Chinese buyers, that means:
III. Tree Nuts and the Policy Environment: U.S. “Cautious Optimism”, Industry Bets on Quality + Cost Control
Even if we focus on macadamias, developments in tree nuts and the policy environment continue to shape the broader nut landscape.
PTNPA (the Peanut and Tree Nut Processors Association) highlighted new food‑safety training initiatives and a U.S. Customs (CBP) duty‑drawback portal in recent updates, signalling that U.S. nut processors are trying to offset trade uncertainty by raising safety standards and using policy tools to manage costs.
U.S. supply is unlikely to become “panic‑tight”; it is more about finding a new equilibrium at relatively high costs.
The industry has plainly shifted from “compete on expansion” to “compete on quality, efficiency and compliance.”
On the pricing side: whole kernels, halves and pieces are now distinct markets with different logics, not just different sizes of the same commodity.
At the origin level:
On the policy side: tariffs, exchange rates and duty‑drawback tools are all quietly reshaping the real margin on every ton shipped.
Australia is playing a stability + brand + long‑term relationship game.
South Africa is leaning into whole‑kernel premiums.
Kenya is raising the bar on channel discipline and quality assurance.
Almonds, walnuts and pistachios are generally in a position of stable or recovering supply compared with 2025.
High labour, input and water costs, plus export and FX uncertainty, are compressing grower margins.
USDA’s Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: March 2026 remains a widely cited reference this week. It reiterates that:
The 2026 State of the Tree Nut Industry Report in National Nut Grower makes the point that:
2025 was a year of “big crops but not big profits,”
and in 2026 the keywords are inventory management and market structure,
rather than simply “who can plant more.”
On the organisational side:
For Chinese companies, this backdrop suggests that:
Conclusion: Less “Who’s Cheapest”, More “Who Can Do the Math”
Putting these threads together, this year’s macadamia story looks increasingly like a test of how precisely you can manage the business:
For Chinese companies, the next few months are a good time to focus on three questions:
If you’d like, I can now condense this English version into a 150–180 word investor‑style brief, or a 2–3 slide outline for internal strategy discussions.
Kenya is an origin to start building slowly and seriously, rather than just a spot‑play.
The bar will be higher – on‑the‑ground audits, contracts, and facility checks will become prerequisites for doing meaningful business.
A sharp reduction in grey‑market channels; some ultra‑cheap sources that relied on shortcuts may disappear.
Higher compliance and operating costs for legitimate buyers and processors who must now meet licensing, inspection and traceability requirements.
Curb theft and premature harvesting.
Protect farmers from being underpaid or exploited.
Improve raw‑material quality and safeguard Kenya’s export reputation.
Middlemen purchasing fresh nuts without a valid licence.
Non‑compliant or informal small‑scale processing facilities.
The main enforcement targets are:
The stated goals are to:
On premium lines, South African whole kernels remain a key origin: they will not be dirt‑cheap, but they come with strong quality and origin stories.
On volume lines, South Africa’s pressure on halves and pieces creates a good window to negotiate not just one‑off prices, but long‑term price‑plus‑volume deals.
In the 2025 season, the exchange rate was roughly 18.25:1 (ZAR:USD).
At the start of the 2026 season, it strengthened to about 16.50:1.
Have dropped from around 9.90 USD/kg to about 9.04 USD/kg, a decline of about 8.7%.
This reflects both higher supply and intense competition in downstream applications such as nut mixes, bakery and cereal bars, where macadamia pieces are fighting for space and price.
Have risen from about 13.50 USD/kg to roughly 14.10 USD/kg, an increase of around 4.4%.
This underscores solid global demand for high‑spec whole kernels, especially in premium snacks, gifting and chocolate/bakery applications.
Whole‑kernel prices in USD
Halves and pieces
Buyers prefer to split their purchases over time and reassess, rather than locking in full‑year volumes in one shot.
For sellers, the advantage goes to those who can offer more flexible terms and clearer market support, not just a headline price.
Product structure – Which origins supply your premium whole‑kernel lines? Which supply your volume‑driven pieces? How do you combine them intelligently?
Supply partnerships – In South Africa and Australia, which 1–2 partners can you anchor with multi‑season, quality‑linked contracts? How do you start building a compliant, long‑term presence in Kenya?
Decision approach – Can you move from “price‑only, gut‑feel decisions” to a system based on data, policy intelligence and clearly structured long‑term agreements?