INC Congress Preview: In a “High-but-Stable” Global Market, What Should Chinese Nut Players Really Watch?
INC Congress Preview: In a “High-but-Stable” Global Market, What Should Chinese Nut Players Really Watch?, published by China Nuts.
This May, the INC World Nut & Dried Fruit Congress will be held in Macao. Every year, this is when major origin growers, traders and equipment suppliers fly to the same place, listen to the latest “Global Statistical Review”, and then spend three days in halls and hotel lobbies re‑negotiating how they see the next few years of business.
The report you shared – the INC global nuts and dried fruit slide deck – is essentially the “hard core” part of that program: world tree‑nut and dried‑fruit production, top producing countries, export volumes and demand trends.
1. Global volume: at a high plateau, not still “taking off”
INC’s statistics cover all major tree nuts (almonds, walnuts, pistachios, macadamias, hazelnuts, cashews, pecans, etc.) plus the main dried fruits (raisins, dried apricots, dates, etc.). Every year they compile a global master table and then break it down by product and country.
From the 2025 edition, a few points stand out:
Total tree‑nut production remains at a historically high level, with the U.S., Turkey and China together accounting for over 60% of world tree‑nut output.
The congress program notes also hint that the next year or two will be less about “further expansion” and more about “finding balance at high levels” – in other words, how to work down stocks and how to manage new plantings.
In short, the industry has already shifted from “competing on planted hectares and tonnage” to “competing on structure and efficiency”.
For Chinese companies, that means:
The real question is no longer “will there suddenly be no product?”, but rather “where will the extra product sit, for how long, and at what price will it clear?”
At the INC congress, whoever can ask clear questions about a counterpart’s production + stock + target markets will have a much easier time planning purchases for the coming year.
2. Shifts among top producers: China is both a big producer and a big buyer
One detail that often gets overlooked in the report: China appears twice in the INC tables – as a “Top Tree Nut Producing Country” and as one of the significant demand/export players.
Recent INC data show:
The U.S. remains the largest tree‑nut producer with roughly 34% of global output; Turkey has around 14%; China roughly 13%, ranking third.
On the demand side, China and India are the two fastest‑growing consumption markets in recent years. For walnuts, pistachios, macadamias and others, their influence on trade flows keeps growing.
This is why so many INC panels now ask “What about China?” as a central topic rather than a passing remark.
For Chinese firms, this has two layers of meaning:
We are not only “a supplier” or “a buyer” – we are simultaneously part of global supply and a key demand variable.
When speaking at the congress or in side meetings, it pays to be able to switch between a global lens and a China lens; people are more likely to take you seriously.
3. Demand and exports: volume still rising, but value creation is shifting
The second part of the report focuses on global demand and exports. This is usually where the liveliest debates happen in INC panels. The changes of the last couple of years can be summed up in three points:
Total consumption is still growing, but moderately
INC data show that aggregate consumption of nuts and dried fruits continues to edge up, driven by snacking, bakery and “better‑for‑you” trends.
Demand is tilting towards Asia and the Middle East
Import growth in China, India and the Middle East is clearly outpacing that of mature markets in Europe and North America.
Value is moving from “raw material trades” to “brands and applications”
On the exhibition floor at INC, more raw‑material suppliers now open conversations with “finished‑product applications” and “co‑developing new products”, rather than just talking about FOB prices.
Put together, these three points lead to a simple conclusion:
Volumes are still growing, but where value is created is being re‑allocated.
If Chinese companies still focus only on “how many extra tons this year” and “how many cents up or down”, they will find it increasingly easy to miss where the real growth is happening.
4. The dried‑fruit segment: an underrated “partner role”
The second half of your slide deck covers dried fruit: global output, top producers and exports. In nut circles, dried fruit is often treated as a “supporting act”, but there’s a reason INC always puts nuts and dried fruits together.
From the INC perspective:
Many large producers and traders are in fact “nut + dried‑fruit” companies (for example, California firms that handle almonds and raisins, or Turkish firms with hazelnuts plus raisins and apricots).
At the consumer end – nut and dried‑fruit mixes, breakfast cereals, bakery items – nuts and dried fruits usually appear together and are priced together.
For China, this implies two things:
When planning product lines, don’t just calculate “nut percentage” – look at the combined margin and perceived value of nuts + dried fruits.
At INC, it’s worth sitting in on some dried‑fruit panels; many lessons on channels, packaging and functional positioning apply just as well to nut‑based finished products.
5. What should Chinese companies pay special attention to at this year’s INC Congress?
Based on the official outline for the 2026 Macao congress and the latest Global Statistical Review, several areas look especially worth “camping out” around – in the sessions and in the hallway conversations:
Crop forecasts and stock discussions by category
Don’t just listen for “up or down” – focus on:
Which origins are actively cutting back?
Which are openly in a de‑stocking phase?
Which are betting on new markets to absorb growth?
China and India–focused sessions
The official data now explicitly single out China and India as the fastest‑growing consumption markets.
Those who can clearly articulate what is really happening in their home market – both in public panels and in private conversations – will carry more weight and attract more partnership offers.
Sustainability and certification debates
Over the last two years, INC has been pushing its sustainability certification and related standards. These may sound “policy heavy” at first, but they increasingly determine who is allowed into big‑name customer lists and premium channels.
Signals from processors and equipment suppliers
Companies like Borrell, GP and other equipment and service providers often use the congress to showcase new technologies and offerings.
For anyone running origin‑side factories or planning expansions, these three days are a very efficient way to meet key partners.
6. From “reading the report” to “making decisions”: three practical suggestions
Finally, back to the report itself. INC’s Global Statistical Review is updated every year, and the 2025 edition was just released in April. For us, it’s best thought of as a global radar screen, not something to memorise line by line. The real value is in how we use it.
Given your current business, I’d suggest starting from three concrete actions:
Build your own version of the global supply–demand map
Use the report’s global production, top‑country and export data as a base.
Overlay your last 2–3 years of purchases and sales destinations to draw “the part of the world that actually matters to you”.
Bring a specific question list to the INC Congress
Rather than talking in generalities, prepare a few pointed questions:
Which countries’ production swings will directly affect your cost next year?
For your 2–3 key products, how do other origins plan to position themselves over the next three years?
Go into sessions and meetings with these questions in mind; it will make every conversation more productive.
Use INC data to calibrate your own narrative
Whether you’re telling upstream partners “China is a growth opportunity” or telling downstream customers “here’s what global supply looks like”, selectively quoting INC’s public statistics as a third‑party reference will both strengthen your case and reduce the sense that you’re “just going on gut feel”.
At its core, the INC congress is a moment when the whole industry “checks the numbers together”: everyone brings their own spreadsheet, and three days later we see whose assumptions will survive the next twelve months. For Chinese nut players, the key is not just what you hear, but which lines in your own spreadsheet you’re prepared to change afterwards.
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