Benchmarking the Global Nut Industry in Macao: Three Deep Insights from the INC Congress
Benchmarking the Global Nut Industry in Macao: Three Deep Insights from the INC Congress, published by China Nuts.
From May 12–14, 2026, the 43rd INC World Nut & Dried Fruit Congress took place at the Galaxy International Convention Center in Macao, bringing together over 1,200 industry decision‑makers from more than 65 countries. For the global trade in nuts and dried fruits, this congress is widely regarded as an annual “barometer” for the industry. For Chinese companies, it is more than a social and exhibition event; it is a rare chance, under a new “high‑plateau normal,” to rebalance with the world on supply–demand patterns and future strategic direction.
I. From “Watching the Buzz” to Truly Understanding the New Normal
The International Nut & Dried Fruit Council (INC) organizes the World Nut & Dried Fruit Congress every year, which is widely recognized as the highest‑level annual gathering in the global industry. The 2026 congress was held in Macao, a city where East meets West, with a three‑day agenda covering crop forecasts, supply–demand dynamics, macroeconomic trends, consumer behavior, sustainability, and processing technologies.
The underlying theme of this year’s congress can be summed up in four words: a high‑plateau normal.
On the supply side, most tree nut categories (such as almonds, walnuts, pistachios, pecans, and hazelnuts) remain at historically high production levels. In some traditional producing regions, new plantings have clearly slowed, and some areas have even entered a “tree‑removal cycle.”
On the demand side, global consumption of nuts and dried fruits continues to grow steadily, but at a slower pace. The main incremental demand now comes from emerging markets such as China, India, and parts of the Middle East, where the expanding middle class is becoming the main consumer force.
At the macro level, high interest rates, high costs, and high uncertainty remain the overarching backdrop. Freight rates have retreated from their pandemic peaks, but the overall cost structure has not returned to the pre‑pandemic “comfort zone.”
Under this new normal, the core of industry competition is shifting from “who can expand faster” to “who can do the math better and think longer term.”
II. Making Sense of INC Global Statistics: It’s Not Just About “How Many Tons This Year”
Alongside the congress, INC publishes its Global Statistical Review every year, systematically outlining global production, trade, and consumption for nuts and dried fruits. It is one of the most important foundational datasets for the industry. Yet the most valuable part is not the rankings on those slides, but rather the ability to see structural changes behind the numbers.
1. Total Production vs. Tradable Volume: Don’t Be Scared by “Big Harvests”
Statistical “total production” and the volume that truly enters international trade as “exportable supply” are not the same thing.
In major consuming countries such as China and India, a large share of walnuts, peanuts, pine nuts, and other products is absorbed by domestic markets and therefore represents only a limited portion of global export figures.
Some smaller producing regions may have modest absolute production, but a high export ratio, which can create a noticeable “marginal impact” on international prices.
When reading INC’s global statistics, companies should be asking:
“Are we looking at total production, or exportable supply into international markets? How do these volumes actually affect our raw material sourcing and pricing?”
2. One‑Year Snapshot vs. Multi‑Year Trajectory: Direction Matters More Than a Single Data Point
INC’s statistics are updated annually, but what truly deserves attention is the three‑ to five‑year trajectory.
In some traditional producing regions, single‑year data may look volatile, but over a longer horizon the trend may actually be slow decline or contraction.
Some emerging categories (such as macadamias and certain functional nuts and dried fruits) are still small in absolute scale but have delivered high‑compound growth for many consecutive years, making them classic “long‑run, deep‑snow” opportunities.
For companies that specialize in a single category, the more relevant question is:
“From a global perspective, is the category we are committed to a structurally upward long‑term track, or has it already reached a plateau?”
3. Crop Categories vs. SKU Logic: From “Almonds” to “This Specific Product”
INC’s statistics are organized by crop (almonds, walnuts, pistachios, and so on), whereas businesses operate real‑world products and SKUs (roasted salted pistachios, daily nut mixes, chopped walnuts for baking, etc.).
Growth in overall crop production does not necessarily mean the specific SKU you sell will see expanding room.
Conversely, even if total production of a crop appears stable, certain end‑use applications (such as meal replacement beverages, bakery ingredients, or functional snacking) may be enjoying robust growth.
When interpreting INC data, companies need to actively translate the “crop perspective” into an “application perspective”:
“Where exactly does the increase or decrease in this crop flow to in terms of consumption scenarios? Within those scenarios, are there segments we are already in—or can realistically enter?”
III. Three Structural Signals Emerging from Macao
Based on the official INC information, updates from participating companies, and industry research, it is clear that the Macao congress is not just “old topics in a new location.” Instead, it has released three clearer structural signals.
1. Geographic Structure: Incremental Growth Shifting from the West to “China–India + Middle East”
The center of incremental demand in the global nut and dried fruit market is moving from mature markets to emerging ones.
Industry forecasts suggest that over the coming years, China, India, and parts of the Middle East will contribute the majority of incremental global consumption, while Europe and North America focus more on structural upgrades and optimization within existing volumes.
In promotional materials around the congress, terms such as “Asia,” “Middle East,” and “rising middle class” appear frequently, highlighting confidence in these regions’ long‑term potential.
For Chinese companies, the implication is clear:
You are no longer just “importing from the world to sell into China.” You are increasingly placed alongside India and the Middle East as one of the key global demand engines.
Your market insights and product innovation will increasingly influence planting decisions and supply layouts in upstream producing regions.
2. Category Structure: From “Raw Material Trading” to “Scenario‑Based Solutions”
Judging from sponsors’ and exhibitors’ communication, both raw material traders and equipment/service providers are consciously shifting from simply “quoting prices” to “providing solutions.”
An increasing number of companies are building bundled solutions for specific consumption scenarios—such as bakery, ready‑to‑eat snacking, children’s nutrition, or meal replacement—rather than only offering single‑crop FOB prices.
Beyond traditional OEM/ODM, there are noticeably more cases of “joint product development and co‑entry into specific channels or markets.”
This suggests that business models relying purely on raw‑material margins or simple trade will come under growing pressure. Those who can position themselves as solution providers—through category segmentation, product innovation, and channel co‑development—will have better chances of locking in higher and more stable profit margins.
3. Regulatory Structure: Sustainability and Compliance as Tickets to the Premium Segment
In a context of global consumption upgrading and tighter regulation, sustainability and compliance are no longer just nice‑to‑have image boosters; they are becoming entry tickets to premium customer segments.
Industry research widely believes that topics such as environmental impact, supply chain transparency, and labor standards will keep reshaping global agricultural trade rules in the coming years, and nuts and dried fruits are no exception.
For suppliers aspiring to enter high‑end retail chains in Europe and North America or to work with global brands, a robust traceability system and internationally recognized certifications will directly determine the threshold for cooperation and pricing power.
INC’s continued investment in sustainability‑related programs, alongside evolving national regulations, is building a kind of “global shared language” for the industry. Companies that can understand and align with this framework in advance will be better positioned when the next wave of rule‑making arrives.
IV. Turning “Three Days of Congress” into “Twelve Months of Planning” for Chinese Companies
For Chinese players along the nut and dried fruit value chain, the INC Macao congress offers not only information, but also a benchmark for recalibrating strategy. Turning three days of insights into actionable plans for the year ahead can be approached along three main lines.
1. Supply Line: Redrawing the “Global Sourcing Map”
Use INC and other industry research data as a foundation to map your key categories across global origins, production volumes, and export ratios, and build your own “supply risk map.”
For categories with ample supply and fierce competition, focus on securing stable volumes and costs through mid‑ to long‑term contracts, diversified origin layouts, and deeper relationships with high‑quality suppliers.
For categories that may be structurally tight, or trending tighter, act early with pre‑purchasing, shared inventory strategies, or upstream collaboration to avoid being forced to chase high prices later.
2. Market Line: Designing “Local Playbooks” with a Global Lens
Translate themes discussed at INC—health, sustainability, and new consumption scenarios—into concrete moves tailored to the Chinese market:
On the product side, proactively align with health benefits emphasized by international research (such as cardiovascular health, metabolic management, and quality protein and fats), and refine formulas and messaging accordingly.
In branding and communication, learn to speak in the globally recognized language of “nutrition and sustainability,” while leveraging local platforms (WeChat, Xiaohongshu, Douyin, etc.) and content formats to tell the story of “Chinese consumption upgrading + world‑class origins.”
On the channel side, design differentiated nut and dried fruit solutions for community group‑buying, livestream e‑commerce, premium supermarkets, coffee chains, bakery chains, and other channels, rather than relying on a single product to fit every outlet.
3. Partnership Line: From Transaction‑by‑Transaction to “Growing Together”
One of INC’s real values lies in putting different parts of the global value chain under one roof. If Chinese companies only aim to collect more WhatsApp numbers and email addresses, they are wasting a unique opportunity.
Before the congress, shortlist three to five upstream or downstream partners that you truly value and would like to build long‑term relationships with. During the event, have in‑depth conversations around three questions:
Do we share a similar view on categories and origins for the next three to five years?
Can we jointly develop a specific product or scenario and open up the Chinese or a third‑country market together?
How can we establish more reasonable mechanisms to share risks from price volatility, FX changes, and inventory fluctuations?
Elevate “cooperation” from basic price negotiations to joint planning, co‑creation of new products, and market collaboration, turning each year’s INC congress into a fixed checkpoint for reviewing and advancing long‑term partnerships.
Conclusion: Seeking Long‑Termism in a High‑Plateau Normal
The three days of the INC Macao congress will pass quickly, but the data, viewpoints, and attitudes shared there will continue to shape the global nut and dried fruit industry over the coming season and even years ahead.
For Chinese enterprises, the more important question is not “what were people saying about prices this year,” but rather: under the clear reality of a high‑plateau normal, are you ready to revisit your category portfolio, origin layout, and customer mix with a longer‑term perspective? Those who can truly embed these three days of insight into next year’s budgets and strategic plans will be in a stronger position when the next round of industry volatility arrives.