Three Weekly Signals in the Global Nut Industry: What INC, Demand and Prices Are Telling Us
Three Weekly Signals in the Global Nut Industry: What INC, Demand and Prices Are Telling Us, published by China Nuts.
1. From INC Updates: Reading the Direction of “Upstream and Rules”
Over the past two weeks, INC’s public updates have focused on three key words: costs, policy and risk.
On the cost side, INC has published a series of notes on fertilizers and macroeconomics, highlighting topics such as “EU suspends customs tariffs on nitrogen‑based fertilizers for one year,” “the fertilizer crisis as a supply‑chain wake‑up call,” and the impact of inflation, interest rates and exchange rates on global agri‑trade. This suggests that in the next 1–2 years, nut production costs and growers’ cash‑flow pressure are likely to be more volatile than in the “stable years” we were used to.
On the rules side, the EU has extended the suspension of its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. nuts and dried fruits until 6 August 2026, effectively keeping the EU a “cost‑friendly, normal‑tariff” market for U.S. almonds, walnuts, pistachios and others. This will influence how U.S. exporters prioritize volume and pricing between the EU and China.
On the risk side, INC explicitly warns the industry to “prepare for El Niño,” asking stakeholders to treat climate anomalies as a structural risk for upcoming seasons rather than a one‑off event. For us, this means that simply looking at “historical average yields” is no longer enough; climate uncertainty has to be built into our procurement cadence.
For management, the message is clear: upstream has moved from a “stable supply” era into a new phase of “volatile costs + policy disruptions,” and a pure unit‑price mindset needs to evolve into multi‑dimensional management of price, risk and rules.
2. From Demand‑Side News: Who Is Buying, and What Are They Buying?
Recent demand‑side reports paint a fairly consistent picture: overall growth is solid, while structural shifts are accelerating.
Globally, the nuts and nut products market in 2026 is estimated in the 60–65 billion USD range. Several research firms put the CAGR at over 5–6%, taking the market close to or above 85–90 billion USD by 2031–2032.
Regionally, the Middle East and Africa are repeatedly highlighted as the fastest‑growing regions over 2026–2031, while Asia (especially China and its neighbors) is the main growth belt combining both scale and speed. USDA’s Tree Nuts: World Markets and Trade report also shows that for products like pistachios, China’s consumption in 2025/26 is projected to grow by around double digits, ranking among the top markets globally.
In terms of usage scenarios, healthy snacking remains the largest single driver, but “nut products” — nut butters, nut beverages, compound spreads, bars, etc. — are growing much faster than simple raw‑material trade. Their market is expected to increase from roughly 9.1 billion USD in 2026 to about 15 billion USD by 2034. E‑commerce nut sales continue to rise, with “online small packs + functional claims” becoming a key launch format in markets such as China, the U.S. and Korea.
Boiled down into one sentence for the sales team: “Total demand is not the problem; the question is whether we can deliver into the specific scenarios buyers want now — healthy snacks, functional products and e‑commerce‑friendly packs — instead of just bulk raw nuts.”
3. From Price and Supply–Demand News: How to Arrange This Year’s “Board”
If we combine recent tree‑nut market commentary with terminal prices, a clear pattern emerges: overall price recovery, mid‑range items stable, high‑priced items firm.
Overall, since 2025 the global nut market has shifted from “high stocks + weak demand” to “gradual destocking + moderate recovery.” After bouncing off the bottom, core products have mostly returned to “reasonable” ranges. Both buyers and sellers are more focused on Q3–Q4 contracts than on short‑term speculation.
Macadamias: After years of new plantings and price correction, reduced crops in Australia and South Africa, Kenya’s harvest restrictions and relatively tight stocks have pushed prices up from the bottom, with single‑season volatility reaching 20–35% in some markets. The current tone is “moderately firm.”
Walnuts and almonds: U.S. walnut production in 2025 has rebounded from a low base, but in the context of tree removals and cautious replanting, supply is “ample but not excessive,” and prices are recovering gently from previous lows. Almonds, at around a 2.70‑billion‑pound “balanced crop,” are under much less stock pressure than a few years ago, with prices moving in a relatively narrow band to find a new equilibrium.
Pecans: Global supply is generally sufficient, but there are notable price gaps between origins and grades. Mainstream kernel halves are hovering around 6.5–6.8 USD/lb, trading in a mid‑range, relatively steady corridor while the market waits for new‑crop signals.
Pistachios and pine nuts: Pistachios remain near multi‑year highs under geopolitical risk and a slightly tight balance, with trade press describing prices simply as “firm.” Pine nuts, heavily influenced by Chinese production and consumption, are seeing strong domestic prices due to smaller local crops and robust demand; even with some export‑tariff relief, they are still expensive by historical standards, and tightness is expected at least through Q1 2026.
For procurement, the combined implications are:
For core mainstream items (almonds, walnuts), we are in a “price‑friendly window” suited to locking in part of our base volume on a medium‑ to long‑term basis.
For high‑elasticity categories (macadamias, pine nuts), we need rolling small‑lot purchases plus early locking around key demand periods to control risk.
For structurally strong items (pistachios), we must accept a higher cost base and offset it through premium positioning and higher basket value at the consumer end.
4. Two Strategic Topics Management Should Prioritize
Bringing together the three lines — INC, demand and prices — we recommend management focus on two strategic topics:
Integrate INC’s “macro + rules” perspective into our annual strategy review
Track: the evolution of EU measures on U.S. nuts post‑August 2026, the level of support for tree nuts in the new U.S. Farm Bill, and the potential impact of El Niño on key origins.
Actions: build “extreme weather + tariff change” scenarios into the annual procurement budget, and shift part of our contracts toward more flexible structures with price/FX/freight adjustment clauses.
Treat “Asia + Middle East demand upgrading” as a dual focus for exports and branding
Track: changes in category mix and channels for nuts and nut products in China, Southeast Asia and the Middle East — in particular, Vietnam and Thailand’s processing demand, and high‑end gift/snack demand in Gulf markets.
Actions: on the export side, use more flexible category and pack combinations to serve regional customers; on the domestic side, increase development of healthy snacks, functional lines and e‑commerce‑ready products so that our procurement and sales strategies are genuinely aligned with this new demand structure.