Northern Hemisphere Nut Harvest Outlook 2026/27: Who Is Tight, Who Is Balanced?
Northern Hemisphere Nut Harvest Outlook 2026/27: Who Is Tight, Who Is Balanced?, published by China Nuts.
As the Northern Hemisphere nut harvest approaches, new signals from the U.S., Europe, China and Africa are already shaping expectations for the 2026/27 season. Instead of a simple “big crop vs. short crop” story, the picture is clearly segmenting: almonds look broadly balanced, pistachios are tightening, hazelnuts are recovering with uncertainty, walnuts are gently rebounding, and macadamias are shifting further toward China and Africa.
1. U.S.: Stable Almonds, Recovering Walnuts, Tight Pistachios
Almonds – USDA pegs the 2026 California crop at 2.70 billion pounds, just 1% below 2025, with bearing acreage down slightly to about 1.39 million acres and stable yields. This is seen as a “high but balanced” crop. Strong May shipments and sales point to recovering demand and healthy confidence in the new crop.
Walnuts – After low prices and orchard removals, U.S. walnut kernel production is forecast to rebound from about 239,000 tons to roughly 271,000 tons in 2025/26, a repair move, not a return to oversupply.
Pistachios – Global pistachio production is expected to fall sharply to around 701,000 tons in 2026/27, down about 36% from the prior high crop, driven by off‑years and bloom stress in both the U.S. and Iran. This places pistachios firmly in a tight cycle, with firm to higher prices likely.
2. Europe & Mediterranean: Spanish Almonds Rebound, Turkish Hazelnuts Debate
Spain – The 2025/26 shelled almond crop is projected at about 467,500 tons, up 24% year‑on‑year and 8% above the five‑year average, potentially a record. This recovery helps stabilize European raw material costs.
Turkey (hazelnuts) – Estimates for the new hazelnut crop range from a conservative 600,000 tons to a more optimistic 809,000 tons, reflecting sharp disagreement among market participants. This uncertainty is itself a risk factor: if large buyers pre‑book aggressively and weather disappoints, price swings could be amplified.
3. China & Africa: Macadamias Move East
China – Recent data point to Chinese in‑shell macadamia output of around 104,000 tons, up nearly 50% year‑on‑year, making China one of the largest single producing origins, driven mainly by Yunnan and Guangxi orchards coming into full bearing. China also remains the world’s largest walnut producer, with 2025/26 kernel output around 682,000 tons, though regional performance is mixed.
South Africa & Kenya – South Africa’s macadamia crop is forecast at about 93,600 tons in‑shell for 2025 and 93,000–95,000 tons in 2026, returning to growth. Kenya’s crop is estimated near 47,500 tons with steady year‑on‑year growth, though export policy on raw nuts remains a key variable.
Together, these trends mean macadamias are increasingly a multi‑polar market anchored by China, South Africa, Australia and Kenya, with pricing strongly influenced by how these origins synchronize (or do not) in each harvest.
4. What This Means for Buyers
In a nutshell:
Almonds and walnuts look like “high but manageable” crops – good candidates for 6–12 month base‑volume contracts.
Pistachios and, in some cases, hazelnuts are entering or already in tight cycles, better served by staggered buying and early season planning.
Macadamias are now driven by cross‑currents between China and Africa; origin diversification and timing will matter more than ever.