Macadamia Prices Are Climbing Again: How Can Chinese Traders Win in a 390,000‑Ton World?
Macadamia Prices Are Climbing Again: How Can Chinese Traders Win in a 390,000‑Ton World?, published by China Nuts.
1. First, the big picture: Nuts are still a long‑term growth business
In the context of the entire nut market, the latest rally in macadamias is no accident.
Recent reports project that the global nuts market could reach around USD 134.7 billion by 2036, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 4.4% between 2026 and 2036.
Looking specifically at tree nuts, the market is expected to grow from about USD 60.6 billion in 2025 to roughly USD 114.5 billion by 2035, implying a CAGR of around 6–7%.
Global consumption upgrading, healthy snacking and plant‑based diets are all pushing nuts upward, and within these trends, macadamias are among the fastest‑growing categories.
For Chinese traders, this means: this is not a business that is “about to end,” but a long‑run track where you either go deeper or get pushed out.
2. Macadamias: Record‑high production, but top‑grade kernels are tighter than ever
2.1 Supply: Global in‑shell volume close to 400,000 tons for the first time
An industry article published in mid‑July provides the latest estimates:
At 3.5% moisture, global macadamia in‑shell supply in 2026 is expected to reach about 392,980 tons, significantly higher than the 341,050 tons estimated for 2025.
South Africa, China, Australia and Kenya are the four key drivers of this increase, with China’s contribution singled out for special mention.
At the same time, forecasts for the value of the macadamia market are very bullish:
One report estimates the global macadamia market at around USD 2.2 billion in 2025, rising to USD 4.4 billion by 2034, a CAGR of about 7.8%.
Other studies suggest the market will be in the USD 2.38–3.0 billion range in 2026 and could reach around USD 6.7 billion by 2036, with a CAGR of roughly 8–10%.
The conclusion is very clear: volumes are rising, prices are rising, and this is real growth backed by fundamentals, not hype.
2.2 Prices: Whole kernels up 30%+, pieces under pressure
A South African “Macadamia Market Update 2026 – Premium Power” notes that in the new‑season pricing, some factories have raised whole kernel prices by as much as 37%, with top‑grade whole kernels reaching around USD 14.10/kg.
On the other hand, halves and pieces are not enjoying the same spotlight: recent Tridge trade data show that unit prices for in‑shell and kernels from Thailand, Kenya, Colombia and other origins are clearly below top‑tier whole‑kernel quotes, with much fiercer competition at these lower grades.
Layer on insights from Cardassilaris’ market analysis:
South Africa’s 2025 macadamia crop is expected to grow about 7% year‑on‑year to roughly 93,000 tons, while Australia is seeing a recovery of about 16%.
As Kenya eases export restrictions, local in‑shell prices have moved up, further lifting kernel costs.
Steady demand from China, the U.S. and Europe has pushed the global price floor for macadamias 10–20% higher than in the previous two years.
For Chinese traders, the reality is blunt:
Macadamias have fully become a “specification‑driven” category – the better the grade, the tighter the supply and the bigger the price gains; the more ordinary the grade, the heavier the price pressure.
3. China’s role in this macadamia cycle: From buyer to “half a market‑maker”
Recent analysis on how China’s production is reshaping the global macadamia market highlights two numbers that everyone should remember:
China’s in‑shell production in 2026 is expected to exceed 100,000 tons (3.5% moisture), which in a roughly 390,000‑ton world puts its share on par with or above individual traditional origins such as South Africa and Australia.
Asia – and especially China – is viewed by many research firms as the largest incremental demand market for macadamias over the next decade, driven by healthy snacks, e‑commerce small packs and bakery channels.
Cardassilaris goes so far as to say:
By locking in long‑term in‑shell contracts ahead of time, China has significantly tightened the availability of free kernel supply, becoming one of the key buyer forces pushing prices higher in recent years.
For Chinese traders, the implications are very direct:
You are no longer only on the “buying side” from South Africa and Australia – your orchards and factories in Yunnan and Guangxi are also influencing the global balance.
When you negotiate prices and long‑term contracts going forward, you are not just a buyer, but also a potential seller and processor, which gives you more room in negotiations – but also demands a higher level of professionalism.
4. Beyond macadamias: Other nuts are “whispering” this week too
The overall nuts market is expected to reach around USD 112–135 billion by 2034–2036, with healthy snacks, plant‑based products and functional foods as the main growth drivers.
Climate, logistics and tariffs are still affecting price volatility for several nut categories – especially pistachios, almonds and hazelnuts – and supply‑chain resilience and multi‑origin sourcing are being written into more and more tenders and long‑term framework agreements.
This means that even if macadamias are your main focus, you cannot afford to look at only one product. Upstream and downstream customers will increasingly expect you to offer portfolio solutions – macadamias plus walnuts, almonds, pistachios – rather than a single raw material.
5. Three “this week” action points for Chinese nut traders
5.1 For macadamias, you must read the market by specification
The key is to split whole / halves / pieces and manage them separately:
Whole kernels: Accept relatively higher price levels and target premium snack brands, gift lines and high‑end bakery customers, aiming for 6–12‑month volume commitments.
Halves and pieces: Focus more on cost‑effectiveness and inventory turnover, matching them with bakery, bulk and OEM customers; do not count on them rising as much as whole kernels.
In pricing, contract design and inventory management, you need separate “accounts” by spec, not one blended “average price”, or you risk sacrificing top‑end margin or being dragged down by low‑grade stock.
5.2 Use the “China + South Africa + Australia + Kenya” origin mix to hedge risk
When negotiating long‑term cooperation – especially annual frameworks – be proactive in educating customers on origin structure:
China (Yunnan/Guangxi): Close to the consumption market, strong processing capability – ideal for e‑commerce, small packs and value‑added products.
South Africa: Traditional powerhouse with mature export experience – suited to long‑term, high‑volume industrial clients.
Australia: Strong quality image and standardisation – good for premium retail and brand lines.
Kenya: Fast‑growing and high potential, but with more policy volatility – contracts should include buffer clauses.
For key customers, explicitly propose a multi‑origin supply‑security plan instead of quoting only one origin’s FOB. This both enhances your professional credibility and gives you flexibility to switch origins as weather, policy and prices evolve.
5.3 Tell the “story”: not just a price, but a view
When explaining your view of this year’s macadamia market to customers, you can frame it like this:
“Globally, 2026 macadamia in‑shell production is around 390,000 tons – higher than last year – but demand from China, the U.S. and Europe is also rising, and whole‑kernel supply is getting tighter. So our suggestion is: lock in part of your whole‑kernel needs early for the premium lines, and use multi‑origin sourcing and pieces to balance overall cost on the mid‑ to low‑end lines.”
Price is just a number. What really convinces customers to build long‑term partnerships is whether you can help them understand the logic behind that number.