This Week in the Global Nut Market Macadamia Supply Up, Almond & Pistachio in Repair Mode
This Week in the Global Nut Market Macadamia Supply Up, Almond & Pistachio in Repair Mode, published by China Nuts.
Over the past week, three themes have stood out in the global nut market:
macadamia supply and trade flows are shifting fast,
major tree nuts like almonds and pistachios are moving into a “repair phase,”
new health evidence continues to strengthen the case for daily nut consumption.
1. Macadamias: More Supply, Clear Price Split
Latest market analysis points to 2026 global in‑shell macadamia supply (3.5% moisture) approaching 390–400,000 MT, up significantly from roughly 341,000 MT in 2025.
China, South Africa, Australia and Kenya are the main growth drivers, with China emerging as both a leading producer and a core demand centre.
Prices are clearly diverging by grade:
Premium whole kernels are quoted close to 14.10 USD/kg, supported by strong bakery, snack and gifting demand.
Halves and pieces have dropped towards 9.00 USD/kg as supply loosens.
For buyers, the action point is to treat macadamias as a portfolio by grade and origin: lock in key whole‑kernel volumes where you need premium positioning, and use lower‑priced pieces and blends to build more affordable SKUs.
2. Other Tree Nuts: From “Bottom Fishing” to “Structured Recovery”
The USDA’s latest Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook and California industry reports signal that almonds, pistachios and walnuts are gradually moving out of their most painful phase.
Almonds: California almond acreage is edging lower while exports – especially to Europe – are up, suggesting that inventories are becoming more manageable and prices are forming a floor.
Pistachios: Remain one of the fastest‑expanding tree nut crops, with solid export demand and comparatively comfortable stock levels.
Walnuts & others: Acreage has peaked and is now contracting, a necessary adjustment after years of oversupply.
Instead of pure “bargain hunting,” buyers can start to think in terms of a multi‑nut sourcing basket, combining almonds, pistachios, walnuts and macadamias to balance cost, availability and risk.
3. Health Evidence: Strong Case for a Daily Nut Mix
Recent umbrella and systematic reviews continue to support the health benefits of regular nut intake.
Compared with not eating nuts, a daily portion of around 28–30 g is associated with roughly 20% lower risk of cardiovascular disease and all‑cause mortality, along with improvements in blood lipids and lower risk of type 2 diabetes in several analyses.
These findings apply broadly across tree nuts and peanuts, including almonds, walnuts, pistachios, cashews, hazelnuts and macadamias.
For brands, this is a strong foundation for “daily nut mix” concepts targeting heart health, metabolic wellness and better‑for‑you snacking, as long as claims are framed carefully (e.g. “may help support” rather than medical promises).
4. Key Takeaways for Buyers and Brands
Macadamias: Use grade and origin as levers. Premium whole kernels for flagship products; cost‑effective pieces and blends for bakery and everyday snacks.
Almonds, pistachios, walnuts: The worst of the oversupply looks to be behind us. This is a good moment to discuss multi‑season partnerships, phased pricing and diversified origin strategies with suppliers.
Health positioning: Bring hard numbers into your story – “around 28 g of nuts a day is linked with about 20% lower cardiovascular risk” – and connect them to clear use occasions (office snacking, brain food for students, better‑for‑you gifting)